Trade Defense Remedies Returned to Ukraine after 2-Year Break
On 12 April 2024, a new era of trade defense remedies in Ukraine started. On that day, the Interdepartmental Commission on International Trade (i.e. a state body responsible for adopting key decisions following the results of the investigations) (the Commission) initiated new long-waiting anti-dumping investigations and reviews after the start of the full-scale war. This article is focused on the new trends of 2024 in this field, both in Ukraine and in proceedings initiated abroad against Ukraine.
Statistics
In 2024, Ukraine initiated seven proceedings, particularly:
- 4 new anti-dumping investigations against imports into Ukraine of matches from India and Pakistan, cucumbers and tomatoes from Turkey, heating radiators from China and Turkey, fittings from China and Turkey;
- 4 reviews, namely: a review of safeguard measures applied against imports of roses and three sunset reviews of anti-dumping measures applied against imports into Ukraine of cement from russia, belarus and Moldova, galvanised steel from China and russia, and lamps from China.
As for the measures, Ukraine has extended only one anti-dumping measure to be applied against imports of rebar and wire rods from russia. Also, Ukraine has applied one preliminary anti-dumping duty against imports of heating radiators from China and Turkey. Other procedures are still pending, and thus, it is difficult to predict which decisions will be adopted. However, the following conclusions could already be made.
Era of Safeguards is Over
The years 2022-2023 evidently demonstrated that Ukraine is reluctant to apply new safeguard measures because they are imposed against all sources of origin, including countries that currently support Ukraine a great deal (like the EU), and there is no possibility to exclude them. Therefore, in 2023, Ukraine terminated all pending safeguard investigations initiated prior to the full-scale war without any measures (investigations against imports of cheese, three-cone drill bits, sodium hypochlorite, and PVC profile).
The termination of the review of safeguard measures applied against imports of roses without extending safeguard duties has additionally confirmed that Ukraine is not ready to consider safeguards as a potential option for protecting domestic producers.
Turkey One of the Most Targeted Countries
Before the war, most investigations were initiated against russia, belarus, and China. Since the start of the full-scale war, Ukraine applied different restrictive measures against trade with russia and belarus. Therefore, imports from the said countries have completely stopped. As for China, imports have decreased because the Black Sea ports have been blockaded, which made logistics from China both lengthy and very expensive. Instead of China, imports of different products from Turkey have been increasing. As a result, 3 out of 4 new investigations have been initiated against Turkey, which did not happen before.
New Approaches by Ministry of Economy of Ukraine
As of the date of this article, the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine (i.e., a body responsible for conducting investigations in Ukraine) (the Ministry) has made final disclosures in the anti-dumping investigation related to imports of radiators for heating from China and Turkey. The Ministry of Economy of Ukraine has decided that there are considerable distortions on the Chinese market in terms of raw materials used for further production of radiators. Therefore, it applied the prices of such raw materials on the US market, which was considered a representative market, and calculated the dumping margin using the constructed prices. As a result, the dumping margin and suggested rates of anti-dumping duties for Chinese producers have become higher.
The Ministry of Economy of Ukraine has considered the negative effect of the war as other factors of causing injury to domestic industry. However, in the end, the Ministry concluded the following: “The presence of increasing volumes of cheap dumped imports relative to consumption and production has stepped up the negative effects caused by the full-scale military invasion of Ukraine by the russian federation after 2022, and prevented the national producer from taking advantage of the relative stabilisation of the situation during the period of the investigation”[1]. Based on the above, it can be concluded that the Ministry will carefully review how the indicators of the domestic industry have developed after the adaptation of the Ukrainian market to conditions of the war, i.e. whether imports have a negative influence on domestic industry.
However, the final approach to be taken by the Ministry to the war analysis will only be defined after the adoption of the relevant decision by the Commission.
Safeguards in the EU
During the period of June 2022 – June 2025, the EU applied autonomous trade measures to Ukraine that, among others, stipulated the suspension of all anti-dumping and safeguard proceedings against Ukraine. Because of the considerable increase in imports, mostly that of agricultural products, the extension of the above full liberalisation of trade for the period of June 2024 – June 2025 has faced considerable opposition from Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia and Hungary.
Therefore, a compromise decision was adopted. In particular, Regulation 2024/1392 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 14 May 2024 on temporary trade-liberalisation measures supplementing trade concessions applicable to Ukrainian products under the Association Agreement between the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community and their Member States on one side, and Ukraine, on the other side (“Regulation 2024/1392”). Regulation 2024/1392 stipulates two types of safeguard measures to be applied in response to an increase in imports from Ukraine, namely:
- “standard” proceedings, under which, prior to the application of any safeguard measures, the European Commission shall carry out an assessment of the consequences of the increase in imports for the domestic industry. The EU has already applied the relevant safeguard measures for quite a short period, namely from 2 May 2023 to 15 September 2023[2].
- automatic safeguard measures applicable to imports of eggs, poultry, sugar, oats, maise, groats or honey from Ukraine if import volumes exceed the arithmetic mean import volumes for the 2nd half of 2021, 2022-2023. The said automatic safeguards were already applied to imports of sugar, eggs, oats, and honey[3].
It is worth emphasising that the EU is not going to extend autonomous trade measures for Ukraine for a period of one more year. Instead, the EU and Ukraine are now negotiating amendments to the DCFTA under Article 29 of the Agreement on Association. The only thing that is clear at present is that there will be no further full trade liberalisation for Ukraine. Most probably, tariff rate quotas will apply, but in higher volumes than now provided for by the DCFTA. On the one hand, such an approach could be in Ukraine’s interest (of course, depending on the final tariff rate quotas to be agreed upon) because the relevant amendments will be adopted for a long period of time (until Ukraine’s accession to the EU), which will create a predictable trade environment for Ukrainian companies.
On the other hand, such arrangements will not suspend the application of anti-dumping, safeguard or countervailing duties against Ukraine. This is quite dangerous since Ukraine’s imports have increased considerably as a result of full liberalisation. At the same time, the EU has already prepared a Proposal for a Regulation suspending certain parts of Regulation (EU) 2015/478 with regard to imports of Ukrainian products into the European Union[4]. The said draft suspends the application of safeguards to Ukrainian steel. However, Article 2 of the draft stipulates a possibility to renew the application of duties in respect of a specific product if imports of this product increase to a level that contributes significantly to the serious injury or threat of serious injury to EU industry. At the same time, the draft does not stipulate that retrospective data should not be considered for the purposes of Article 2. This means that potentially, after 5 June 2025 (termination of autonomous trade measures), the European Commission could apply Article 2 to re-introduce safeguards for certain steel products.
US Trade Policy has Become Completely Protectionist
During Joe Biden’s era, after the start of the full-scale war, the US announced that it would not terminate anti-dumping duties applicable to Ukraine automatically but has highlighted that it is ready to revise the anti-dumping duties if the relevant reviews are initiated by Ukraine. The above initiative has been confirmed by the results of an administrative review initiated by PJSC Stalkanat that has been terminated with unprecedented results – establishing a 0% dumping margin and application of a 0% anti-dumping duty. Moreover, the US suspended a 25% additional import duty for Ukraine which applied to steel for the period of May 2022 till 11 March 2025.
However, after Donald Trump was elected US president, the US started a “tariff war” and renewed additional duties of 25%[5]. Moreover, the US has not terminated anti-dumping duties applied against imports of steel concrete reinforced bars[6] and silicomanganese[7] following sunset reviews. This happened irrespective of the fact that Ukrainian producers have significantly suffered from the war, including a shortage of energy, air strikes, lack of employees, etc. Unfortunately, all these factors have been ignored. In addition, the US has already applied reciprocal tariffs of 10% against Ukraine[8].
Rise in Protectionism
It is worth emphasising that the US has started a “trade war” by applying different tariffs against the rest of the world. Moreover, the US has suspended payment of financial contributions to the WTO. This means that the era of predictable international trade is over… The world must get ready for de-globalization and a new wave of protectionism… Trade defense remedies are, in this context, the right tools…
[1] Main facts and conclusions of the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine in the framework of the anti-dumping investigation against imports into Ukraine of radiators for heating originating from Turkey and China
[2] Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2023/903 of 2 May 2023 introducing preventive measures concerning certain products originating in Ukraine
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg_impl/2023/903/oj/eng
Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2023/1100 of 5 June 2023 introducing preventive measures concerning certain products originating in Ukraine
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg_impl/2023/1100/oj/eng
[3] Commission Regulation (EU) 2024/1825 of 1 July 2024 on the introduction and management of tariff-rate quota for sugar resulting from Regulation (EU) 2024/1392 of the European Parliament and of the Council on temporary trade-liberalisation measures supplementing trade concessions applicable to Ukrainian products under the Association Agreement between the Union and Ukraine
Commission Regulation (EU) 2024/1827 of 1 July 2024 on the introduction and management of tariff-rate quota for eggs resulting from Regulation (EU) 2024/1392 of the European Parliament and of the Council on temporary trade-liberalisation measures supplementing trade concessions applicable to Ukrainian products under the Association Agreement between the Union and Ukraine
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2024/1827
Commission Regulation (EU) 2024/1726 of 18 June 2024 on the introduction of tariff quota for oats resulting from Regulation (EU) 2024/1392 of the European Parliament and of the Council on temporary trade-liberalisation measures supplementing trade concessions applicable to Ukrainian products under the Association Agreement between the Union and Ukraine
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=OJ:L_202401726
Commission Regulation (EU) 2024/2166 of 20 August 2024 on the introduction and management of tariff-rate quotas for honey resulting from Regulation (EU) 2024/1392 of the European Parliament and of the Council on temporary trade-liberalisation measures supplementing trade concessions applicable to Ukrainian products under the Association Agreement between the Union and Ukraine
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2024/2166/oj/eng
[4] https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex:52025PC0107
[5] https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/adjusting-imports-of-steel-into-the-united-states/?fbclid=IwY2xjawJrID1leHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHgET2vmOs5VxLLlmo0n5rJHFQg6V0SbpLIKdtZGonq1Sa39RJxxK1djlaU0n_aem_1I3DAlndMrdzc5sSmADicQ
[6] https://www.usitc.gov/publications/701_731/pub5565.pdf
[7] https://www.usitc.gov/publications/701_731/pub5554.pdf
[8] https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-declares-national-emergency-to-increase-our-competitive-edge-protect-our-sovereignty-and-strengthen-our-national-and-economic-security/?fbclid=IwY2xjawJrJYBleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHnyK6XhaSLosNul0HYMcJCnvF6e-VnHvymd2tVdv867M8IFilGqzN9zB9hkj_aem__Pydp0FhKquuUpV6m-zwhw
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